S&P GSCI Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.79%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
17.89%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
18.27%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 174 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~174 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0121 | 5.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0677 | 4.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9258 | 127.06*** |
| γleverage | 0.0052 | 0.25 |
0.996
Persistence174d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0121 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 4.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9258 | 127.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0052 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
174 days
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