Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

23.25%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

23.29%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Month

23.45%

decreased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 178 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0120
19.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0677
19.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9258
508.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0053
1.03

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

178 days