S&P GSCI Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
23.25%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
23.29%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
23.45%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 178 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0120 | 19.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0677 | 19.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9258 | 508.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0053 | 1.03 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
178 days
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