V-Lab
S&P GSCI Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
21.05%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
21.11%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
21.34%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 175 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0121 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0678 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9257 | 126.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0052 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
175 days
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