V-Lab
S&P GSCI Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
27.78%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
27.78%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
27.79%
decreased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 182 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0120 | 19.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0678 | 19.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9258 | 509.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0051 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
182 days
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