S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.28%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
24.28%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
24.26%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 188 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2555 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 53.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 1,498.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3382 | 8.39*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
188 days
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