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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.02%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

22.03%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

22.09%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 188 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~188 daysv = 7.38 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.2444
1.34
αARCH0.0541
13.44***
βGARCH0.9963
372.04***
νDF7.3756
2.08**

0.996

Persistence

188d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2444
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
13.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9963
372.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3756
2.08**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

188 days