V-Lab
S&P GSCI Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
29.16%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
29.13%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
28.99%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 191 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2726 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0542 | 54.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9964 | 1,523.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3499 | 8.43*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
191 days
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