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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

31.80%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

31.87%

increased by 0.96%

1 Month

32.15%

increased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~122 daysv = 7.55 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run5.6316
1.42
αscore0.0615
12.66***
βpersistence0.9944
244.85***
νDF7.5481
1.73*

0.994

Persistence

122d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

5.6316
1.42
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0615
12.66***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9944
244.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.5481
1.73*

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

122 days