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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

35.56%

decreased by 1.53%

1 Week

35.57%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Month

35.64%

decreased by 1.45%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 132 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~132 daysv = 6.61 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.4674
1.28
αARCH0.0559
12.79***
βGARCH0.9948
243.22***
νDF6.6092
2.03**

0.995

Persistence

132d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4674
1.28
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0559
12.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9948
243.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6092
2.03**

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

132 days