S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.71%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Week
46.62%
decreased by 2.19%
1 Month
46.27%
decreased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 131 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4748 | 5.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0561 | 51.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 968.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5832 | 8.16*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
131 days
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