V-Lab
S&P GSCI Petroleum Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
57.26%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
57.09%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
56.45%
decreased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.5677 | 5.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0560 | 51.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 997.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5805 | 8.27*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
136 days
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