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CME Feeder Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

16.53%

increased by 2.25%

1 Week

16.56%

increased by 2.28%

1 Month

16.66%

increased by 2.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.35 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.1859
0.88
αscore0.0573
4.55***
βpersistence0.9809
44.05***
νDF3.3473
2.70***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.1859
0.88
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0573
4.55***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9809
44.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3473
2.70***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days