CME Feeder Cattle GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.53%
increased by 2.25%
1 Week
16.56%
increased by 2.28%
1 Month
16.66%
increased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-lifev = 3.35 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.1859 | 0.88 |
| αscore | 0.0573 | 4.55*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9809 | 44.05*** |
| νDF | 3.3473 | 2.70*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.1859 | 0.88 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0573 | 4.55*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9809 | 44.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3473 | 2.70*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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