CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.21%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
18.21%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
18.19%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 395% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0119 | 11.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0092 | 6.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9633 | 760.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0363 | 8.89*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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