Skip to main content
V-Lab

CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

18.22%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

18.22%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

18.20%

decreased by 0.26%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 394% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0119
11.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0092
6.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9634
762.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0363
8.89***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days