V-Lab
CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
20.89%
increased by 4.54%
1 Week
20.84%
increased by 4.49%
1 Month
20.65%
increased by 4.30%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 397% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0119 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0091 | 1.70* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9636 | 191.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0361 | 2.23** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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