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CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.55%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

18.54%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

18.49%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 394% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 394% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0119
2.98***
αARCH0.0091
1.70*
βGARCH0.9636
191.12***
γleverage0.0359
2.22**

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0119
2.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0091
1.70*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9636
191.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0359
2.22**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days