CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.86%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
16.88%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
16.95%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 393% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 393% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0119 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0091 | 1.70* |
| βGARCH | 0.9636 | 190.81*** |
| γleverage | 0.0359 | 2.21** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0119 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0091 | 1.70* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9636 | 190.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0359 | 2.21** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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