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CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

16.86%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

16.88%

decreased by 0.00%

1 Month

16.95%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 393% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 393% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0119
2.99***
αARCH0.0091
1.70*
βGARCH0.9636
190.81***
γleverage0.0359
2.21**

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0119
2.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0091
1.70*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9636
190.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0359
2.21**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days