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CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026

1 Day

19.20%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

19.17%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

19.09%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 03:14 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/04/2024

to

11/04/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 394% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 394% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0118
2.99***
αARCH0.0090
1.70*
βGARCH0.9639
191.97***
γleverage0.0356
2.22**

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0118
2.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0090
1.70*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9639
191.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0356
2.22**

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days