CME Feeder Cattle GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
16.78%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
16.79%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
16.84%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~78 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0108 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0273 | 6.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9639 | 192.27*** |
0.991
Persistence78d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0108 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0273 | 6.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9639 | 192.27*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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