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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Sugar Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

32.33%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

32.31%

increased by 1.34%

1 Month

32.26%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Sugar Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~161 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0160
3.63***
αARCH0.0291
7.76***
βGARCH0.9666
231.47***

0.996

Persistence

161d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0160
3.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0291
7.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9666
231.47***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

161 days