V-Lab
S&P GSCI Sugar Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
32.33%
increased by 1.36%
1 Week
32.31%
increased by 1.34%
1 Month
32.26%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 161 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~161 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0160 | 3.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.0291 | 7.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9666 | 231.47*** |
0.996
Persistence161d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0160 | 3.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9666 | 231.47*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
161 days
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