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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Wheat Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

32.12%

increased by 5.38%

1 Week

32.05%

increased by 5.31%

1 Month

31.80%

increased by 5.06%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Wheat Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0264
19.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0495
36.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9419
625.86***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

81 days