V-Lab
S&P GSCI Wheat Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.04%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
29.99%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
29.77%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 82% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0267 | 19.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0590 | 25.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9449 | 664.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0265 | -7.23*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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