V-Lab
S&P GSCI Wheat Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
28.34%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
28.31%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Month
28.18%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7762 | 14.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 33.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 1,582.47*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.8291 | 3.18*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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