V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
20.69%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
20.71%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
20.80%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4196 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0300 | 51.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 2,192.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2405 | 12.51*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
Other S&P GSCI Zinc Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities