S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.15%
1 Week
22.17%
1 Month
22.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 270 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.5035 | 1.62 |
| αscore | 0.0307 | 12.50*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9974 | 523.04*** |
| νDF | 6.8273 | 2.51** |
0.997
Persistence270d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.5035 | 1.62 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0307 | 12.50*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 523.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8273 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
270 days
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