V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
23.23%
1 Week
23.24%
1 Month
23.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 269 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4336 | 1.68* |
| αARCH | 0.0299 | 12.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9974 | 555.67*** |
| νDF | 6.2417 | 3.14*** |
0.997
Persistence269d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4336 | 1.68* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0299 | 12.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 555.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2417 | 3.14*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
269 days
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