V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
20.05%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
20.08%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
20.18%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4147 | 1.67* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0300 | 12.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 545.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2458 | 3.12*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
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