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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

20.69%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

20.71%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Month

20.80%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4196
6.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0300
51.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9974
2,192.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2405
12.51***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

267 days