V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.88%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
21.90%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
21.96%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 269 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4312 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0300 | 51.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 2,221.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2386 | 12.59*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
269 days
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