S&P GSCI Zinc Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.01%
increased by 0.11%
1 Week
25.01%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
25.00%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 270 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4488 | 6.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0301 | 51.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 2,241.42*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2286 | 12.71*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
270 days
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