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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Zinc Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.46%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Week

22.32%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

22.53%

decreased by 0.56%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Zinc Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow86
αARCH0.0810
2.92***
βGARCH0.6277
7.36***
γleverage-0.0158
-0.61
λ₁tau intercept0.0987
2.13**
λ₂forecast adj.0.3631
2.85***
λ₃tau persistence0.6013
4.26***

0.701

Persistence

2d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0810
2.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6277
7.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0158
-0.61
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0987
2.13**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3631
2.85***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.6013
4.26***

Persistence:

0.701

Half-life:

2 days