V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.46%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
22.32%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
22.53%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 86 | |
| αARCH | 0.0810 | 2.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6277 | 7.36*** |
| γleverage | -0.0158 | -0.61 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0987 | 2.13** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3631 | 2.85*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.6013 | 4.26*** |
0.701
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0810 | 2.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6277 | 7.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0158 | -0.61 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0987 | 2.13** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3631 | 2.85*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6013 | 4.26*** |
Persistence:
0.701
Half-life:
2 days
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