S&P GSCI Zinc Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
19.82%
1 Week
19.64%
1 Month
19.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.32 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0640 | 4.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1548 | 10.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8177 | 43.26*** |
| γleverage | 0.0181 | 0.54 |
| δpower | 1.3195 | 5.87*** |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0640 | 4.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1548 | 10.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8177 | 43.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0181 | 0.54 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3195 | 5.87*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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