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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

25.94%

increased by 2.28%

1 Week

25.82%

increased by 2.16%

1 Month

25.77%

increased by 2.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
15.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7355
24.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0032
0.84
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0244
1.27
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0577
1.83*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9326
25.32***

Persistence:

0.800

Half-life:

3 days