S&P GSCI Cotton Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.94%
increased by 2.28%
1 Week
25.82%
increased by 2.16%
1 Month
25.77%
increased by 2.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0633 | 15.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7355 | 24.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0032 | 0.84 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0244 | 1.27 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0577 | 1.83* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9326 | 25.32*** |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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