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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

24.93%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Week

24.94%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

24.95%

decreased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0167
17.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0451
40.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9478
761.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1500
-6.25***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

97 days