V-Lab
S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.74%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Week
37.71%
decreased by 1.63%
1 Month
37.61%
decreased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.20) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0762 | 25.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0785 | 41.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9067 | 495.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1998 | 6.90*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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