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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

37.74%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Week

37.71%

decreased by 1.63%

1 Month

37.61%

decreased by 1.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.20) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0762
25.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0785
41.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9067
495.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1998
6.90***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days