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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

39.40%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

39.37%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

39.26%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4608
6.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0529
44.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9931
1,038.85***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7826
5.78***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days