V-Lab
S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
37.00%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
37.00%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
37.01%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4494 | 7.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 44.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9931 | 1,041.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8061 | 5.79*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
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