Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

37.76%

decreased by 1.12%

1 Week

37.70%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Month

37.64%

decreased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 54% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0534
17.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8876
166.25***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0289
8.46***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0341
5.29***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0421
4.41***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9503
86.43***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days