V-Lab
S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
37.76%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
37.70%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
37.64%
decreased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 54% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0534 | 17.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8876 | 166.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0289 | 8.46*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0341 | 5.29*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0421 | 4.41*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9503 | 86.43*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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