V-Lab
S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
41.40%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Week
41.37%
decreased by 1.19%
1 Month
41.26%
decreased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0233 | 17.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 29.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 1,343.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0194 | -5.81*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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