S&P GSCI Cotton Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.41%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
24.49%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
24.79%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 14% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0113 | 24.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0996 | 40.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 2,162.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0064 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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