V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cotton Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
26.67%
increased by 1.12%
1 Week
26.71%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
26.87%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0113 | 6.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.0991 | 10.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9906 | 543.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.0065 | 0.86 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0113 | 6.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0991 | 10.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9906 | 543.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0065 | 0.86 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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