V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cotton Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
22.42%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
22.46%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
22.58%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4377 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0405 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9935 | 214.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8634 | 1.47 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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