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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

26.38%

increased by 0.06%

1 Week

26.36%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

26.28%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~107 daysv = 6.86 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4530
1.57
αARCH0.0404
7.23***
βGARCH0.9935
216.12***
νDF6.8614
1.47

0.994

Persistence

107d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4530
1.57
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0404
7.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9935
216.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8614
1.47

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

107 days