S&P GSCI Cotton Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
26.38%
1 Week
26.36%
1 Month
26.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4530 | 1.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0404 | 7.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9935 | 216.12*** |
| νDF | 6.8614 | 1.47 |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4530 | 1.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 7.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9935 | 216.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.8614 | 1.47 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
Other S&P GSCI Cotton Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities