COMEX Silver GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
53.78%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
53.57%
decreased by 0.76%
1 Month
52.74%
decreased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7545 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0419 | 43.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9941 | 931.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2805 | 17.64*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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