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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

36.86%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

36.81%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

36.64%

decreased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 6.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.9218
2.53**
αARCH0.0444
8.08***
βGARCH0.9850
161.68***
νDF6.0327
1.49

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9218
2.53**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0444
8.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9850
161.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0327
1.49

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days