V-Lab
S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
36.86%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
36.81%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Month
36.64%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 46-day half-lifev = 6.03 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.9218 | 2.53** |
| αARCH | 0.0444 | 8.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9850 | 161.68*** |
| νDF | 6.0327 | 1.49 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9218 | 2.53** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0444 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9850 | 161.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0327 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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