S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
36.13%
increased by 2.46%
1 Week
36.10%
increased by 2.43%
1 Month
36.00%
increased by 2.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 6.03 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.9065 | 2.56** |
| αARCH | 0.0448 | 8.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9846 | 159.71*** |
| νDF | 6.0289 | 1.49 |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9065 | 2.56** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0448 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9846 | 159.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0289 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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