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S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

36.13%

increased by 2.46%

1 Week

36.10%

increased by 2.43%

1 Month

36.00%

increased by 2.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 6.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.9065
2.56**
αARCH0.0448
8.06***
βGARCH0.9846
159.71***
νDF6.0289
1.49

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9065
2.56**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0448
8.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9846
159.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0289
1.49

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days