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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

53.67%

decreased by 1.67%

1 Week

53.23%

decreased by 2.11%

1 Month

51.59%

decreased by 3.75%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.9607
9.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0446
32.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9853
645.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0193
6.00***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days