V-Lab
S&P GSCI Coffee Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
48.48%
decreased by 1.12%
1 Week
48.15%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Month
46.93%
decreased by 2.67%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9537 | 9.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0444 | 32.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9853 | 651.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0247 | 6.01*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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