S&P GSCI Coffee Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
74.91%
decreased by 2.87%
1 Week
73.91%
decreased by 3.87%
1 Month
70.23%
decreased by 7.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0920 | 19.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0588 | 29.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9235 | 388.20*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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