S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.45%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
18.56%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
18.97%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0280 | 23.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0643 | 41.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9212 | 526.38*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
47 days
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