V-Lab
S&P GSCI Soybeans Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
16.83%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
17.02%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
17.75%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 23% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0134 | 17.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1449 | 43.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9846 | 1,241.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0152 | 5.63*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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