V-Lab
S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
18.13%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
18.26%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
18.69%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 42% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0267 | 21.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0749 | 24.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9225 | 532.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0221 | -4.97*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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