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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

18.13%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

18.26%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

18.69%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Soybeans Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 42% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0267
21.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0749
24.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9225
532.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0221
-4.97***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days