V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.22%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
13.33%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
13.72%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 300 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~300 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 2.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.0320 | 3.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9670 | 231.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.0024 | -0.18 |
0.998
Persistence300d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 2.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9670 | 231.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
300 days
Other S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities