S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.00%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
14.10%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
14.50%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 268 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0077 | 12.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 14.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9666 | 910.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
268 days
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