Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

13.90%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Week

14.00%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

14.39%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 276 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0075
11.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0320
14.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9667
915.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0024
-0.73

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

276 days