V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
12.95%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
13.37%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 296 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9669 | 231.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.18 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
296 days
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