V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13.90%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
14.00%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
14.39%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 276 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0075 | 11.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0320 | 14.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9667 | 915.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
276 days
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