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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

13.77%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

13.87%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

14.27%

increased by 0.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 278 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0075
11.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0308
31.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9667
912.83***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

278 days