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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

32.21%

decreased by 1.19%

1 Week

32.17%

decreased by 1.23%

1 Month

32.01%

decreased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0354
20.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0683
30.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9218
412.27***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days