S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
21.26%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
21.47%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
22.22%
increased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0355 | 5.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.0682 | 7.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9218 | 103.31*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0355 | 5.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0682 | 7.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9218 | 103.31*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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