Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

32.73%

decreased by 1.25%

1 Week

32.67%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

32.47%

decreased by 1.51%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0349
17.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0700
31.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9188
405.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2806
10.06***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days