S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
32.73%
decreased by 1.25%
1 Week
32.67%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
32.47%
decreased by 1.51%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.28) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0349 | 17.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 31.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9188 | 405.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2806 | 10.06*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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