COMEX Gold AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.23%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
22.13%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
21.75%
decreased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.31) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0094 | 6.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0429 | 15.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9457 | 302.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3068 | -9.02*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
60 days
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