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V-Lab

COMEX Gold AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.23%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

22.13%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

21.75%

decreased by 1.04%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Gold AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.31) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0094
6.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0429
15.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9457
302.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3068
-9.02***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

60 days