V-Lab
CBOT Soybeans AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.73%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
18.91%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
19.58%
increased by 0.40%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.12) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0292 | 15.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0666 | 31.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9218 | 459.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1154 | -3.23*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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