CME Lean Hogs AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
33.98%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
34.00%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
34.08%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 229 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~229 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0164 | 1.69* |
| αARCH | 0.0029 | 1.66* |
| βGARCH | 0.9941 | 310.27*** |
| γleverage | -0.1770 | -0.13 |
0.997
Persistence229d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0164 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0029 | 1.66* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9941 | 310.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1770 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
229 days
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