CME Lean Hogs AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
32.72%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
32.75%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
32.86%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0163 | 6.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0030 | 6.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 1,228.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1733 | -0.54 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
230 days
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