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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

32.72%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

32.75%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

32.86%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0163
6.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0030
6.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9940
1,228.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1733
-0.54

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

230 days