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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

33.98%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

34.00%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Month

34.08%

increased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 229 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~229 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0164
1.69*
αARCH0.0029
1.66*
βGARCH0.9941
310.27***
γleverage-0.1770
-0.13

0.997

Persistence

229d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0164
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0029
1.66*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9941
310.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1770
-0.13

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

229 days