V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
32.08%
1 Week
32.11%
1 Month
32.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 343 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0062 | 5.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 1,500.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0062 | -4.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2466 | 0.02 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9594 | 0.55 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
343 days
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