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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

32.08%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

32.11%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

32.23%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 02:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CME Lean Hogs MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 343 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0062
5.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
1,500.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0062
-4.68***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2466
0.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9594
0.55

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

343 days