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CME Lean Hogs APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

36.06%

increased by 1.89%

1 Week

36.22%

increased by 2.05%

1 Month

36.82%

increased by 2.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~166 daysδ = 0.61 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0090
3.49***
αARCH0.0083
2.16**
βGARCH0.9907
245.29***
γleverage1.0000
83.60***
δpower0.6052
1.99**

0.996

Persistence

166d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0090
3.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0083
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9907
245.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
83.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6052
1.99**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

166 days