CME Lean Hogs APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
36.06%
1 Week
36.22%
1 Month
36.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 166 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 0.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0090 | 3.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0083 | 2.16** |
| βGARCH | 0.9907 | 245.29*** |
| γleverage | 1.0000 | 83.60*** |
| δpower | 0.6052 | 1.99** |
0.996
Persistence166d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0090 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0083 | 2.16** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 245.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 83.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6052 | 1.99** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
166 days
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