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COMEX Copper APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

21.66%

increased by 0.17%

1 Week

21.76%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

22.13%

increased by 0.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Copper APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0181
3.08***
αARCH0.0423
4.55***
βGARCH0.9536
121.45***
γleverage-0.0128
-0.12
δpower1.8821
4.15***

0.994

Persistence

118d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0181
3.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0423
4.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9536
121.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0128
-0.12
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8821
4.15***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

118 days