COMEX Copper APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
21.66%
increased by 0.17%
1 Week
21.76%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
22.13%
increased by 0.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0181 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0423 | 4.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9536 | 121.45*** |
| γleverage | -0.0128 | -0.12 |
| δpower | 1.8821 | 4.15*** |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0181 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0423 | 4.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9536 | 121.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0128 | -0.12 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8821 | 4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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