Skip to main content
V-Lab

NYMEX Palladium APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

36.71%

decreased by 2.73%

1 Week

37.17%

decreased by 2.27%

1 Month

38.55%

decreased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NYMEX Palladium APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 1.40 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1763
5.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1182
22.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8551
118.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0280
1.05
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3990
16.36***

Persistence:

0.955

Half-life:

15 days