V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
47.75%
decreased by 1.90%
1 Week
49.73%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
54.15%
increased by 4.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7201 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1116 | 6.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8037 | 25.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0210 | 0.16 |
| γ2 | -0.1166 | -0.67 |
| γ3 | 0.2941 | 3.59*** |
| γ4 | -0.5062 | -4.03*** |
| γ5 | 0.4875 | 2.81*** |
| γ6 | -0.1930 | -1.39 |
| γ7 | 0.0314 | 0.35 |
| γ8 | 0.0367 | 0.43 |
| γ9 | -0.1965 | -2.14** |
| γ10 | 0.3278 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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