V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
47.19%
decreased by 3.37%
1 Week
46.87%
decreased by 3.69%
1 Month
46.09%
decreased by 4.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7176 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1122 | 6.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8068 | 26.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0068 | 0.05 |
| γ2 | -0.0910 | -0.52 |
| γ3 | 0.2744 | 3.25*** |
| γ4 | -0.4919 | -3.74*** |
| γ5 | 0.4751 | 2.64*** |
| γ6 | -0.1837 | -1.28 |
| γ7 | 0.0346 | 0.37 |
| γ8 | 0.0083 | 0.10 |
| γ9 | -0.1184 | -1.42 |
| γ10 | 0.1114 | 1.78* |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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