V-Lab
NYMEX Palladium Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
49.17%
increased by 13.57%
1 Week
48.62%
increased by 13.02%
1 Month
47.27%
increased by 11.67%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7256 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1125 | 6.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8063 | 26.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0055 | 0.04 |
| γ2 | -0.0853 | -0.49 |
| γ3 | 0.2655 | 3.20*** |
| γ4 | -0.4865 | -3.83*** |
| γ5 | 0.4787 | 2.71*** |
| γ6 | -0.1949 | -1.37 |
| γ7 | 0.0483 | 0.52 |
| γ8 | -0.0069 | -0.08 |
| γ9 | -0.1039 | -1.26 |
| γ10 | 0.1035 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.919
Half-life:
8 days
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