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V-Lab

NYMEX Palladium Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

42.62%

decreased by 1.62%

1 Week

43.09%

decreased by 1.15%

1 Month

44.21%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NYMEX Palladium S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7091
3.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1119
6.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8062
25.93***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0041
0.03
γ2-0.0911
-0.52
γ30.2806
3.30***
γ4-0.4950
-3.69***
γ50.4683
2.59***
γ6-0.1689
-1.19
γ70.0178
0.19
γ80.0267
0.31
γ9-0.1361
-1.63
γ100.1220
1.94*

Persistence:

0.918

Half-life:

8 days