NYMEX Palladium Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
42.62%
decreased by 1.62%
1 Week
43.09%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
44.21%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7091 | 3.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1119 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8062 | 25.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0041 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.0911 | -0.52 |
| γ3 | 0.2806 | 3.30*** |
| γ4 | -0.4950 | -3.69*** |
| γ5 | 0.4683 | 2.59*** |
| γ6 | -0.1689 | -1.19 |
| γ7 | 0.0178 | 0.19 |
| γ8 | 0.0267 | 0.31 |
| γ9 | -0.1361 | -1.63 |
| γ10 | 0.1220 | 1.94* |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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