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V-Lab

CME Feeder Cattle Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

17.13%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

17.15%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

17.24%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4910
6.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0269
5.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9531
110.08***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.0747
-2.34**
γ20.0911
1.84*
γ3-0.0063
-0.18
γ4-0.0283
-0.94
γ50.0243
1.19

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days