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V-Lab

CME Feeder Cattle MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.15%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

18.20%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

18.29%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9758
260.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0248
9.90***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0603
0.37
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0413
0.39
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9061
3.68***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days