CME Feeder Cattle MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.09%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
17.83%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
17.65%
decreased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9758 | 259.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0248 | 9.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0605 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0414 | 0.39 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9057 | 3.64*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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