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V-Lab

CME Feeder Cattle AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

17.50%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

17.50%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

17.50%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Feeder Cattle AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0060
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0276
25.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9611
684.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5317
16.22***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days