V-Lab
CME Feeder Cattle AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.50%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
17.50%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
17.50%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 2001 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.53) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0060 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0276 | 25.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9611 | 684.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5317 | 16.22*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
Other CME Feeder Cattle Analyses
Other AGARCH Analyses on Commodities