NYMEX Palladium AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
35.63%
decreased by 1.96%
1 Week
36.09%
decreased by 1.50%
1 Month
37.40%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3147 | 10.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1143 | 22.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8366 | 133.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0942 | 0.96 |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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