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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

53.48%

decreased by 3.31%

1 Week

53.08%

decreased by 3.71%

1 Month

51.65%

decreased by 5.14%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0891
15.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1044
32.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8784
290.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4516
11.16***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days