ICE Brent Crude Oil AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
53.48%
decreased by 3.31%
1 Week
53.08%
decreased by 3.71%
1 Month
51.65%
decreased by 5.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.45) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0891 | 15.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1044 | 32.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8784 | 290.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4516 | 11.16*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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