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ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

44.80%

decreased by 2.72%

1 Week

44.71%

decreased by 2.81%

1 Month

44.36%

decreased by 3.16%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.0430
1.23
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0752
10.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9913
136.70***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0566
1.95*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days