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ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

47.73%

decreased by 2.63%

1 Week

47.59%

decreased by 2.77%

1 Month

47.05%

decreased by 3.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9476
4.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
40.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9912
538.99***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0678
7.70***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

78 days