ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
36.80%
decreased by 2.13%
1 Week
36.84%
decreased by 2.09%
1 Month
36.98%
decreased by 1.95%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 daysv = 6.08 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.9987 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0748 | 10.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9913 | 136.15*** |
| νDF | 6.0793 | 1.93* |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9987 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 10.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9913 | 136.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0793 | 1.93* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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