Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

32.04%

decreased by 1.79%

1 Week

32.17%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Month

32.66%

decreased by 1.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.19 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 daysv = 6.19 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.0014
1.24
αscore0.0757
9.99***
βpersistence0.9911
133.39***
νDF6.1862
1.86*

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.0014
1.24
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0757
9.99***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9911
133.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1862
1.86*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days