V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
44.80%
decreased by 2.72%
1 Week
44.71%
decreased by 2.81%
1 Month
44.36%
decreased by 3.16%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.0430 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0752 | 10.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9913 | 136.70*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0566 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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