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ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

43.49%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Week

43.41%

decreased by 2.31%

1 Month

43.14%

decreased by 2.58%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 daysv = 6.06 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.0447
1.23
αARCH0.0748
10.29***
βGARCH0.9914
137.83***
νDF6.0619
1.95*

0.991

Persistence

80d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.0447
1.23
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
10.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9914
137.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0619
1.95*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days