ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
47.73%
decreased by 2.63%
1 Week
47.59%
decreased by 2.77%
1 Month
47.05%
decreased by 3.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 78 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.9476 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0748 | 40.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9912 | 538.99*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0678 | 7.70*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
78 days
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