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ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

36.80%

decreased by 2.13%

1 Week

36.84%

decreased by 2.09%

1 Month

36.98%

decreased by 1.95%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~80 daysv = 6.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.9987
1.23
αARCH0.0748
10.26***
βGARCH0.9913
136.15***
νDF6.0793
1.93*

0.991

Persistence

80d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.9987
1.23
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0748
10.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9913
136.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0793
1.93*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days