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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.65%

increased by 1.92%

1 Week

15.61%

increased by 1.88%

1 Month

15.46%

increased by 1.73%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 16.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.8205
6.66***
αscore0.0490
6.75***
βpersistence0.9830
241.10***
νDF16.9455
0.46

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.8205
6.66***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0490
6.75***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9830
241.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

16.9455
0.46

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days