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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

15.26%

increased by 1.22%

1 Week

15.23%

increased by 1.19%

1 Month

15.11%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8049
21.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0477
26.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9834
849.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

14.0332
2.17**

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days