S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.65%
increased by 1.92%
1 Week
15.61%
increased by 1.88%
1 Month
15.46%
increased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifev = 16.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.8205 | 6.66*** |
| αscore | 0.0490 | 6.75*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9830 | 241.10*** |
| νDF | 16.9455 | 0.46 |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.8205 | 6.66*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0490 | 6.75*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9830 | 241.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 16.9455 | 0.46 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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