V-Lab
S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
13.37%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
13.39%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
13.50%
decreased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 14.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8034 | 5.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0475 | 6.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9834 | 212.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 14.0330 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities