S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
15.39%
increased by 1.47%
1 Week
15.35%
increased by 1.43%
1 Month
15.22%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 13.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8030 | 21.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0476 | 26.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9834 | 845.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 13.9647 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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