V-Lab
S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.47%
1 Week
18.56%
1 Month
18.92%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.2626 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0438 | 9.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9923 | 141.32*** |
| νDF | 5.6343 | 1.67* |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2626 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0438 | 9.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9923 | 141.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6343 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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