S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17.94%
1 Week
18.05%
1 Month
18.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.3165 | 1.50 |
| αscore | 0.0474 | 9.51*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9920 | 158.01*** |
| νDF | 6.6251 | 1.45 |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.3165 | 1.50 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0474 | 9.51*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9920 | 158.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6251 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
Other S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities