S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.19%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
19.27%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
19.57%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2831 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0434 | 37.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 582.83*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6663 | 6.68*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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