V-Lab
S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.34%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.57%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
16.40%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.17) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0248 | 17.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0506 | 31.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9368 | 485.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1652 | 5.38*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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