S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.33%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
17.73%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
18.19%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 144% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 144% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0387 | 3.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8098 | 23.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0558 | 3.18*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0105 | 2.41** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0283 | 4.13*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9663 | 115.44*** |
0.876
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0387 | 3.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8098 | 23.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0558 | 3.18*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0105 | 2.41** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0283 | 4.13*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9663 | 115.44*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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