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S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

17.33%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

17.73%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

18.19%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 144% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 144% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0387
3.38***
βGARCH0.8098
23.24***
γleverage0.0558
3.18***
λ₁tau intercept0.0105
2.41**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0283
4.13***
λ₃tau persistence0.9663
115.44***

0.876

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0387
3.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8098
23.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0558
3.18***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0105
2.41**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0283
4.13***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9663
115.44***

Persistence:

0.876

Half-life:

5 days